Hugo Chávez Presente!

President Hugo Chávez was reelected on October 7, 2012 receiving a little bit more than 55% of the vote with a high voter turnout. This was a significant victory with a sizable margin although substantially smaller than Chávez’s margin of victory in 2006.  The opposition candidate for president, Henrique Capriles Radonski received 44% of the vote, Capriles was reelected Governor of the populous stare of Miranda in December, one of the few governorships that the PSUV did not win.   Hugo Chávez  has been dealing with a serious bout of cancer and received many  treatments in Cuba and    returned in late February, 2013 to Venezuela where his condition worsened and he died Tuesday afternoon, March 5th, 2013. It is a tragic loss for the people of Venezuela, for Latin America and the world.  Hugo Chávez was a great man.  Chávez totally connected with the popular classes of Venezuela through the programs he started such as the missions; by his love, respect for, and listening to the people; and by his voicing so powerfully their aspirations. His initiation of and support for the development of popular power and a participatory democracy showed his trust and respect for the popular classes.  Hugo Chávez was central to the process of the inclusion of the formerly excluded–to poor people becoming subjects of their history.      Hugo Chávez was an original and creative thinker and doer; someone who was constantly experimenting on how to create a just and equal and self-determining society. In 2005, he named it, “Socialism for the   21st Century”—a socialism whose center was ethical and cooperative human beings in a society organized to meet human needs. Equally important was Chávez’s role of challenging U.S. global domination in the hemisphere and globally, and furthering Latin American solidarity. As I wrote before, Chávez was a nationalist, a Latin-Americanist and an internationalist.   He made mistakes. He was too loyal to some of the people around him in Venezuela and perhaps too supportive of leaders around the world who challenged U.S. domination even if they were repressive in their own country.  He probably should have delegated more tasks and details to others, and should have made more of a priority the reduction of crime, the reduction of corruption and bureaucracy, and the development of the infrastructure of Venezuela. Still his accomplishments totally  outweighed his mistakes.   Hugo Chávez profoundly and qualitatively changed  Venezuela and the world for the better like few individuals have ever done.  Because of Hugo Chávez , Venezuela is on a path where there is the real possibility of a society that is socialist and democratic, a participatory democracy and a participatory 21st century socialism . Millions and millions of people in Venezuela and around the world and I mourn him.  Hugo Chávez presente!   New Elections Around the time of the October, 2012  elections, Chávez who had already  named  Nicolás Maduro as Vice-President  named him as his choice to be the next President of Venezuela as head of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV).  Maduro, a former trade union leader was foreign minister in the Chávez administration from 2006 to 2012. He has been acting president the last few months, and now is the temporary President. According to the 1999 Venezuelan constitution, Maduro  must call an election within the next 30 days, by April 4, 2013. He has already stated his intention to do so.   In recent polls, Maduro seems comfortably ahead of the most likely opposition candidate, Henrique Capriles Radonski.  Although Venezuelan polls are notoriously inaccurate, my guess is that Maduro will be elected President in the next month and that that there will be no major changes in Venezuelan policies or the Venezuelan model, domestically and  internationally.  Nicolás Maduro, a former trade union leader,   has been Venezuela’s foreign minister from 2006-2012 and has been a strong supporter of Chávez ’s policies and ideology and politics. Although Maduro does not have the charisma of Chávez nor the intense love by the Venezuelan people, Chávez’s designation of Maduro as his desired successor carries a lot of weight with those who supported Chávez. Hopefully, the population will get more involved in building popular power as they understand they no longer have Chávez to solve their problems.       Update on the Venezuelan Economy In 2012, the GDP grew by 5.5% a significant improvement from  2009-2011 although still lower than the annual growth from 2003-2008. The minimum wage went up by 32% in 2012 significantly more than the inflation rate of 20%. Inflation continues to be high but is not accelerating and was slightly lower in 2012 than in 2011.  The official unemployment rate in 2012 was 6% and there continues to be a slow but steady increase in the proportion of the labor force that is in the official labor market, 58% of the total labor force.  (Venezuela Analysis, www.venezuelanalysis.com Ewan Robertson, March 1, 2013)   The official rate for the Bolivar was devalued on February 8, 2013 from 4.3 to the dollar to 6.3 to the dollar. This was probably necessary as the higher rate of inflation in Venezuela compared to the United States means that their currency is constantly becoming overvalued. This will only end if inflation rates converge.  There is also a black market rate for the Bolivar but it has fallen since the devaluation; it is currently about 9.25 to the dollar. Although the government is trying to limit the rise of prices caused by the devaluation of the Bolivar, inflation is likely to increase on imported goods as they become more expensive.  Because of the devaluation, prices of necessities like food will rise more than they would have otherwise.  So, it is important that the income of low income people be protected so they can pay for these higher prices.